Background and Data

COVID-19 is causing havoc in Oregon once again, and as numbers continue to spike, I decided to revisit one the of the first projects I worked on in R Studio. That project can be seen here, and used data from Johns Hopkins. However, because that data is no longer updated this investigation will use data from the NY times that has more current data. The repository for the NY Times data can be found here, and the datasets that are being included are :

  1. us.states : state level data (file description here)

  2. us.counties : county-level data (file description here)

  3. colleges : number of reported cases among students and employees at American colleges and universities, updated May 26th (file description here)

  4. mask_use : survey between July 2 and July 14 (2020) where participants were asked, “How oftern do you wear a mask in public when you expect to be within six feet of another person?” (file description here)

  5. vacc: state level COVID-19 daily vaccination numbers time series data from the Johns Hopkins University repository (file description here)

  6. policytrackerOR: dates and description of policies going into/out of effect in Oregon. To load data for a particular state go to here, find the name of the state file you want to work with.

Here is the data :

us.states <- read_csv('https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/master/us-states.csv')
us.counties <- read_csv('https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/master/us-counties.csv')
colleges <- read_csv('https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/master/colleges/colleges.csv')
mask_use <- read_csv('https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/master/colleges/colleges.csv')
vacc <- read_csv("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/govex/COVID-19/master/data_tables/vaccine_data/us_data/time_series/people_vaccinated_us_timeline.csv")
policytrackerOR <- read_csv("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/govex/COVID-19/govex_data/data_tables/policy_data/table_data/Current/Oregon_policy.csv")

The projected cited above mainly looked at the case, death, and vaccination numbers per state to compare highly and mildly impacted states. In this project I will look at highly impacted states and the counties of Oregon. Additionally this project will use population and density data from the tidycensus package. I discuss more about how I got this data using an API in a blog post here. Note that this data is from 2019, which is a couple years older than the COVID data.

# tidycensus
# State : POP and DENSITY data 
state.pop <- get_estimates(geography = "state", year = 2019, variable =  "POP") %>% rename ("state" = NAME, "population" = value)
state.den <- get_estimates(geography = "state", year = 2019, variable =  "DENSITY") %>% rename ("state" = NAME, "density" = value)
# OREGON : POP and Density data 
or.county.pop <- get_estimates(geography = "county", state = "OR", year = 2019, variable = "POP") %>% rename ("county" = NAME, "population" = value)
or.county.den <- get_estimates(geography = "county", state = "OR", year = 2019, variable = "DENSITY") %>% rename ("county" = NAME, "density" = value)

Wrangling the Data

The COVID data set is already in long form (meaning the dates are in rows instead of columns), and the date is already saved as a date variable. Therefore the main tasks here are to join the us.states data set with the vaccination records, and population estimates. Then join the us.states.vacc with the population data and create new percentage columns.

## # A tibble: 5 × 12
##   date       state      population density cases     case.per deaths perc.deaths
##   <date>     <chr>           <dbl>   <dbl> <dbl>        <dbl>  <dbl>       <dbl>
## 1 2020-01-21 Washington    7614893    115.     1 0.000000131       0           0
## 2 2020-01-22 Washington    7614893    115.     1 0.000000131       0           0
## 3 2020-01-23 Washington    7614893    115.     1 0.000000131       0           0
## 4 2020-01-24 Illinois     12671821    228.     1 0.0000000789      0           0
## 5 2020-01-24 Washington    7614893    115.     1 0.000000131       0           0
## # … with 4 more variables: full.vacc <dbl>, full.vacc.perc <dbl>,
## #   part.vacc <dbl>, part.vacc.perc <dbl>

Note: People_Fully_Vaccinated and People_Partially_Vaccinated show as NA because of the dates displayed were before the vaccine was released.

Next, to join the Oregon county population data with the density data, remove “County, Oregon” from each county object, filter out Oregon from the us.counties data, and then join with the population data per county.

## # A tibble: 10 × 8
##    date       county     population density cases cases.perc deaths deaths.perc
##    <date>     <chr>           <dbl>   <dbl> <dbl>      <dbl>  <dbl>       <dbl>
##  1 2020-02-28 Washington     601592   831.      1 0.00000166      0           0
##  2 2020-02-29 Washington     601592   831.      1 0.00000166      0           0
##  3 2020-03-01 Washington     601592   831.      2 0.00000332      0           0
##  4 2020-03-02 Washington     601592   831.      2 0.00000332      0           0
##  5 2020-03-03 Washington     601592   831.      2 0.00000332      0           0
##  6 2020-03-04 Washington     601592   831.      2 0.00000332      0           0
##  7 2020-03-05 Washington     601592   831.      2 0.00000332      0           0
##  8 2020-03-06 Washington     601592   831.      2 0.00000332      0           0
##  9 2020-03-07 Jackson        220944    79.4     2 0.00000905      0           0
## 10 2020-03-07 Klamath         68238    11.5     1 0.0000147       0           0

Using the data

Looking at States

To begin lets look at the country as a whole, by state. The data will be filtered for 2022-02-09, and then lets look at the top five states with :

Most number of cases

Most Cases
By State as of 2022-02-09
State Total Population Cases Percentage
California 39,512,223 8,754,579 22.16%
Texas 28,995,881 6,415,781 22.13%
Florida 21,477,737 5,713,185 26.60%
New York 19,453,561 4,849,690 24.93%
Illinois 12,671,821 2,987,075 23.57%

Highest percentage of cases

Highest Percent of Cases
By State as of 2022-02-09
State Total Population Cases Percentage
Rhode Island 1,059,361 350,715 33.11%
Alaska 731,545 228,852 31.28%
North Dakota 762,062 232,723 30.54%
Utah 3,205,958 907,346 28.30%
Tennessee 6,829,174 1,900,155 27.82%
South Carolina 5,148,714 1,427,869 27.73%
Kentucky 4,467,673 1,224,302 27.40%
Florida 21,477,737 5,713,185 26.60%
Wisconsin 5,822,434 1,548,408 26.59%
Arizona 7,278,717 1,931,642 26.54%

Most number of deaths

Most Deaths
By State as of 2022-02-09
State Total Population Deaths Percentage
California 39,512,223 82,113 0.21%
Texas 28,995,881 81,559 0.28%
Florida 21,477,737 66,468 0.31%
New York 19,453,561 65,553 0.34%
Pennsylvania 12,801,989 41,897 0.33%

Highest percentage of deaths

Highest percent of Deaths
By State as of 2022-02-09
State Total Population Deaths Percentage
Mississippi 2,976,149 11,455 0.38%
Arizona 7,278,717 26,856 0.37%
New Jersey 8,882,190 32,187 0.36%
Alabama 4,903,185 17,452 0.36%
Louisiana 4,648,794 16,066 0.35%

Most people fully vaccinated

Most People Vaccinated
By State as of 2022-02-09
State Total Population People Fully Vaccinated Percentage
California 39,512,223 27,747,572 70.23%
Texas 28,995,881 17,191,218 59.29%
New York 19,453,561 14,529,142 74.69%
Florida 21,477,737 14,051,493 65.42%
Pennsylvania 12,801,989 8,479,166 66.23%

Highest percentage of population fully vaccinated

Highest Percent of People Fully Vaccinated
By State as of 2022-02-09
State Total Population People Fully Vaccinated Percentage
District of Columbia 705,749 618,449 87.63%
Puerto Rico 3,193,694 2,585,154 80.95%
Vermont 623,989 497,216 79.68%
Rhode Island 1,059,361 843,875 79.66%
Maine 1,344,212 1,046,530 77.85%

Looking at Oregon Counties

Next to look at the data a little closer to home, for Oregon Counties. Initially filtering by the most recent date, which as of this being written is 2022-02-09`, looking at a graph of the state as a whole, and then look at the top five Oregon counties.

Most number of cases

Most Cases
Oregon Counties as of 2022-02-09
County Total Population Cases Percentage
Multnomah 812,855 107,011 13.16%
Washington 601,592 80,994 13.46%
Marion 347,818 66,130 19.01%
Clackamas 418,187 57,147 13.67%
Lane 382,067 53,603 14.03%

Highest percentage of Cases

Highest Percentage of Cases
Oregon Counties as of 2022-02-09
County Total Population Cases Percentage
Jefferson 24,658 6,942 28.15%
Umatilla 77,950 21,785 27.95%
Malheur 30,571 8,004 26.18%
Morrow 11,603 2,896 24.96%
Crook 24,404 5,728 23.47%

Most number of Deaths

Most Deaths
Oregon Counties as of 2022-02-09
County Total Population Deaths Percentage
Multnomah 812,855 1,001 0.12%
Marion 347,818 617 0.18%
Clackamas 418,187 497 0.12%
Washington 601,592 485 0.08%
Jackson 220,944 447 0.20%

Highest percentage of Deaths

Highest Percent of Deaths
Oregon Counties as of 2022-02-09
County Total Population Deaths Percentage
Harney 7,393 36 0.49%
Josephine 87,487 308 0.35%
Malheur 30,571 100 0.33%
Douglas 110,980 344 0.31%
Jefferson 24,658 74 0.30%